Soybean futures issue a sell signal (5/18)

Posted on May 18, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Larry Baer, senior broker at Zaner Group.

Soybean futures declined today (5/18) following three previous trading sessions of gains. 

This move lower for both July and November soybeans gives me sells signals on the daily chart.  This is the first sell signal soybeans have issued since the trend changed to the downside.  Soybeans also close below its 50-day SMA, a bearish indicator.  The trend is down on the monthly chart for the November and July beans and so far this month they are showing a key reversal.

Although soybeans have not confirmed to me they are in a longer-term downtrend I look for prices to move lower in the short term.

Subscribe FREE to Larry Baer’s Daily Charts & Set-Ups Newsletter.

For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.

Call me for trade set-ups at (312) 277-0112

SEE CHART

Call me for details and trade set-ups at (312) 277-0112

or toll free at 888-281-4161

or email: Lbaer@Zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Open an account with Larry Baer at Zaner Group.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Larry Baer’s Options & Futures Trading Strategies.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

November Soybeans Struggle to Rally with Other Grains (5/18)

Posted on May 18, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

 

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

November Soybeans Struggle to Rally with Other Grains (written 5/17)

Old crop corn, old crop soybeans, and wheat all had a nice rally today.  November soybeans however settled well of its highs.  Here again, an ultra fast planting pace could be weighing on new crop pricing.  Also, a little hotter dryer pattern may be affecting wheat and to a small extent corn but soybeans should fair well.

Soybeans have worked hard to buy acreage away from corn since the March 30th USDA planting projections report and, the fast planting pace has some experts thinking that we could see a jump double cropped soybean acreage.  This could significantly loosen the tight ending stocks projections for next year.

See November Soybean Daily chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to make sure they lock up prices that makes sense for their bottom line.  Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Rick Alexander’s Grain futures commentary (5/18)

Posted on May 18, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAINS: 5/18/12  THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO FROM  5:00 PM THROUGH 2:00PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM. Higher closes yesterday for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures along with rough rice, oats, corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil futures.  The wheat complex continues to look very bearish overall but has had sharp rallies this week telling me that the complex was oversold not a turnaround.  Minneapolis settled higher for its third session in a row and best high and close in 2 1/2 weeks but still in a downtrend overall since September 2011.  There’s also strong resistance overhead from 800 to 850.  KC and Chicago also settled higher for their third and fourth sessions in a row respectively with the former making its highest high and close since around April 10th and the latter also early April.  KC has resistance above 680 and its last major support is undereath 600 while trending down since February 2011 while Chicago had been making lower highs since early this year until today after rallying 60 to 70 cents since My 11th.  There is also strong resistance above 650.  The enitre wheat complex can be sold on rallies until further notice.  CALL FOR DETAILS!  Don’t forget the possibility that the world wheat crop could be a record.  The funds may also still be holding a record number of short positions but I would guess there has been substantial liquidation lately.  Oats settled once cent higher after having a much larger trading range than normal.  However, oats so far have held good support from 330 to 340 with more below 320.  Rice settled higher this time after four lower closes in a row still trending higher but looking toppy at this time down for its third session in a row following through from Friday’s reversal type action still looking toppy at this time.  Rice has good support uner 1530 down to 1500 and again below 1480.  CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS, THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER but settled below 600 on May 10th.  Now corn has rallied from 572 1/4 up to 626 1/2 in just four trading sessions helped by possible Chinese buying of corn.  Today, it had its best close in twelve sessions as shown below.  There still is, however, is very good resistance overhead as where the July contract stalled out before.  The bean complex also settled higher with key prices to watch at 1350 for July beans, 400 and 290 for meal along with 5000 for oil the latter lagging far behind overall.  For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.  BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES.  SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, MINNEAPOLIS AND KANSAS CITY WHEAT FUTURES.  CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@zaner.com! 

Rick Alexander

(312) 277-0107

ralexander@zaner.com

Zaner Group

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Corn Catches a Nice Bounce Off of Lows (5/17)

Posted on May 17, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

 

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

Corn Catches a Nice Bounce Off of Lows (written 5/15)

July corn closed over 25 cents off of the recent low placed on Friday.  Pressure late last week came mainly due to good weather, fast planting and a bearish USDA report.  Last Thursday, in a surprise move, the USDA gave us an old crop corn balance sheet that saw a 50 million bushel increase in ending stocks.  This came as a surprise because none of the private estimates had the USDA raising ending stocks.  The USDA may have chosen to do this because they see an early planting as an indicator of a likely early harvest which could bring supply to the marketplace sooner then normal.  Regardless of the reason it seems that the USDA has drawn a line in the sand at 801 million bushels for the 2011/2012 carry over.

This could mean that we have seen the most bullish old crop USDA report for the rest of the current marketing season.  Also, with good weather and fast planting, bullish fundamental news events may be few and far between.  However, we still haveChina.  Today there were rumors ofChinabuying circulating the floor and we saw a positive outlook come back into the market.  The other bullish factor out there is that even though we have the corn (at least the USDA says so) it seems that producers are holding tight for now.  As I took a poll this morning of my clients it came to find out that on average guys were holding 20% in the bin and not looking to sell soon.  This can an likely will be very supportive to basis and provide strength to the futures as well.  This could provide good selling opportunities on weather scares but, the dilemma is where will we be rallying from on a weather scare.  If good weather, a strong US dollar and weak outside markets break July corn into the lower $5.00 level then a $.40 rally on a weather scare doesn’t do much good even with a strengthening basis.  I believe holding our current low ($5.72 in July corn) is key to holding and looking for a weather scare.  If that low is violated then it may be time to move some cash corn.

See December Corn Daily chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to make sure they lock up prices that makes sense for their bottom line.  Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Rick Alexander’s Grain futures commentary (5/16)

Posted on May 16, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAINS: 5/16/12  THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO 4:PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM SUNDAY. News of China possible buying corn helped the grains follow the corn higher today. Higher closes yesterday for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures along with oats, corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil while lower for rough rice futures.  The wheat complex continues to look very bearish but the wheat complex settled higher this time making large ranges.  Minneapolis stopped its losing streak at ten with its best close in five trading session but still in a downtrend overall since September 2011.  There’s also strong resistance overhead from 800 to 850.  KC and and Chicago settled higher again also having large ranges but, like Minneapolis still in long-term downtrends.  KC has resistance above 680 and its last major support is undereath 600 while trending down since February 2011.  Chicago has been making lower highs since early this year but is now below the range that was roughly between 600 and 700.  Of course, I’ve been talking about that range for quite a while.  It’s had lower tendencies since May 2011.  There is also strong resistance above 650.  The enitre wheat complex can be sold on rallies until further notice.  CALL FOR DETAILS!  Don’t forget the possiblility that the world wheat crop could be a record.  The funds may also still be holding a record number of short positions but I would guess there has been substantial liquidation lately.  Oats settled higher this time holding good support from 330 to 340 and below 320 so far.  Rice settled down for its third session in a row following through from Friday’s reversal type action still looking toppy at this time.  Rice is still in some resistance with good support uner 1530 down to 1500 and again below 1480.  CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS, THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER BUT NO MORE.  Today, it settled higher with a large trading range off the China rumours but there is very good resistance overhead as seen below which is where the July contract stalled recently and its trend is still lower overall.  The bean complex also followed the corn higher with key prices to watch at 1350 for July beans, 400 and 290 for meal along with 5000 for oil.  For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.  BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL FUTURES.  SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY WHEAT.  CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@Zaner.com! 

 

Rick Alexander

(312) 277-0107

ralexander@zaner.com

Zaner Group

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Judy Crawford’s Grain futures Market Update (5/16)

Posted on May 16, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Judy Crawford, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

JULY CORN:  Just looking at the daily chart, there should be more to the rally – to the 610 resistance?  The double bottom on the daily chart that I referred to last time at 591 3/4, corn violated but got back over it today.  Last time I suggested that technically it could stabilize around 570.  On Friday it got to 572 1/4.  Based on the long term charts, this rally could be an opportunity to short.  Watching closely.  Closed 597 1/4, up 14 1/4.

JULY MINI WHEAT:  During the entire collapse in the beans, wheat held around 600.  That was impressive.  It formed an inside day yesterday on the daily chart but I did not suggest a trade as the long term charts contradict each other.  There should be more to its rally too but it is now starting to push into resistance on the daily chart near 620 to 625.  Just watching.  Closed 608 1/2, up 10 1/4.

JULY MINI SOYBEANS:  My stop in the bean position was reached on Friday prior to the major sell-off.  When they then sold off and took out Thursday’s low I shorted them again.  They have since sold off to 1376 yesterday.  Today they rallied back over 1400.  Technically if they match the rally following the report, they could reach 1430 approximately.  That is also a resistance area they formed in early April.  Bear in mind the rally that followed the report bounced off of that area which was then support.  It is obviously resistance now.  Even if beans surpass that area they have technical resistance again at 1450 approximately and the 20 day ma intersecting at 1455.  It was that resistance area that stopped the rally last week. Even before then the downtrend line intersects at 1445. Today they were stopped by the 50 day ma.  Keep stops at 1462 for now.  Closed 1413, up 26.  Position:  Short 1478 (5.3).  Exit 1460 1/2 (5.11).  Profit $120 (-comm/fees).  Position:  Short 1427 1/4 (5.11).  Projection:  1400.

JULY SOYMEAL:  When it took out Thursday’s low on Friday, I shorted it again.  It is attempting to hold at 400.00 support.  Today it rallied to the 20 day ma and stopped.  It has resistance above that at 420.00.  The high of the last rally was 425.50.  Keep stops at 425.70.  Closed 417.20, up 13.70.  Position:  Short 415.  Projection:  380.00.

JULY SOYBEAN OIL:  It has support on the daily chart at 51.00 and stopped there yesterday and is attempting to consolidate further today at that level.  Long term this week has been negative for bean oil.  On the weekly chart, it has started the week off by violating the 100 day ma with follow through.  Move stops from 53.62 down to 52.45.  Closed 51.47, up .17.  Position:  Short 52.97 (5.9).  Projection:  50.00.

For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.

 

Judy Crawford

Call Judy Crawford toll-free at (888) 301-8120 or directly at (312) 277-0133

E-mail: jcrawford@zaner.com.

http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.

All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Rick Alexander’s Grain futures commentary (5/15)

Posted on May 15, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAINS: 5/15/12  THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO 4:PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM SUNDAY. Higher closes yesterday for Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures, along with corn while lower for rough rice, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, oats and Minneapolis wheat futures.  The wheat complex continues to look very bearish with Minneapolis ending up down for its tenth session in a row still needing to hold the 700 area with little resistance down to 600 after that.  It also made its lowest low and close since November 2010 once again while in a downtrend overall since September 2011 basically on a 45 degreee angle down since April of this year.  There’s also strong resistance overhead from 800 to 850.  KC and and Chicago settled higher but looking like a ‘dead cat bounce’ today.  KC has resistance above 680 and its last major support undereath 600 which its rapidly approaching at this time.  It’s been trending down since February 2011.  Chicago has been making lower highs since early this year but is now below its range roughly between 600 and 700 that I’ve been talking about which seems like forever!  It’s had lower tendencies since May 2011.  There is also strong resistance above 650.  The enitre wheat complex can be sold on rallies until further notice.  CALL FOR DETAILS!  Don’t forget the possiblility that the world wheat crop could be a record.  The funds may also still be holding a record number of short positions but I would guess there has been substantial liqidation lately.  Oats made its worst low and close in over three weeks.  There’s good support from 330 to 340 and below 320 which is the critical area to hold in my opinion.  Rice settled down again following through from Friday’s reversal type action still looking toppy at this time.  Rice is still in some resistance at this time with good support under 1530 down to 1500 and again below 1480.  CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER BUT NO MORE.  Today, it settled higher but there is very good resistance overhead as seen below which is where the July contract stalled recently.  The bean complex also closed down again with beans making their worst lows and closes since the middle of March, the meal April and the oil the end of January.  Key prices to watch for me are 1350 for July beans, 400 and 290 for meal along with 5000 for oil.  For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.  BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL FUTURES.  SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY WHEAT.  CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@zaner.com! 

 

 

Rick Alexander

(312) 277-0107

ralexander@zaner.com

Zaner Group

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Rick Alexander’s Grain futures commentary (5/14)

Posted on May 14, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAINS: 5/14/12  THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO 4:00PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM SUNDAY. NOPA CRUSH. EXPORT INSPECTIONS. CROP PROGRESS. Lower closes last session for rough rice, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, oats, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures.  The wheat complex continues tumble with Minneapolis ending up down for its ninth session in a row still needing to hold the 700 area with little resistance down to 600 after that.  It also made its lowest low and close since November 2010 once again while in a downtrend overall since September 2011 basically on a 45 degreee angle down since April of this year.  There’s also strong resistance overhead from 800 to 850.  KC also settled again lower with making its worst low and close since May 2010 again.  Meanwhile, Chicago a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE finally settling below 600 basis the July contract.  KC has resistance above 680 and its last major support undereath 600 which its rapidly approaching at this time.  It’s been trending down since February 2011.  Chicago has been making lower highs since early this year but now below its range roughly between 600 and 700 that I’ve been talking about which seems like forever!  It’s had lower tendencies May 2011.  There is also strong resistance above 650.  The enitre wheat complex can be sold on rallies until further notice.  CALL FOR DETAILS!  Don’t forget the possiblility that the world wheat crop could be a record.  The funds may also still be holding a record number of short positions but I would guess there has been substantial liquidation lately.  Oats made its worst low and close in around three weeks.  There’s good support from 330 to 340 and below 320 which is the critical area to hold in my opinion.  Rice had its best high in 2 1/2 weeks before settling lower in reversal type action still looking toppy at this time.  Rice is in some resistance at this time with good support uner 1530 down to 1500 and again below 1480.  CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS, THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER BUT NO MORE with its worst low and close since January finally giving me a SELL SIGNAL which I adimit was taking the conservative approach since corn has been falling since the middle of March in the July contract.  Also the new (Dec.) crop corn has been in a downtrend since last September.  There’s very good resistance overhead as seen below which is where the July contract stalled recently.  The bean complex also closed down making new recent lows and closes across the board.  Key prices to watch for me is the 140 and 135 areas.  Meal has some support under 240 and 380 which area my important price areas to keep an eye on.  Oil settled sharply lower now in a support area but I won’t give a sell signal for the long-term unless I see a close below 5100.  For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.  BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL FUTURES.  SELL SIGNAL FOR CORN, MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY WHEAT FUTURES.  CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@zaner.com! 

 

 

Rick Alexander

(312) 277-0107

ralexander@zaner.com

Zaner Group

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Rick Alexander’s Grain futures commentary (5/11)

Posted on May 11, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAINS: 5/11/12  THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO 4:PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM SUNDAY. The main thurst of the crop report along with the supply/demand was the surprising increase in grain stocks when just about every analyst was looking for a decline.  The beans were considered bullish and the wheat was called higher off it also.  Higher closes yesterday for rough rice, Chicago wheat, soybeans and soymeal, unchanged for oats while lower for corn, Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat along with soyoil futures.  The wheat complex continues tumble with Minneapolis ending up down for its eight session in a row still needing to hold the 700 area with little resistance down to 600 after that.  It also made its lowest low and close since November 2010 once again while in a downtrend overall since September 2011 basically on a 45 degreee angle down since April of this year.  There’s also strong resistance overhead from 800 to 850.  KC also settled again lower with making its worst low and close since May 2010.  Meanwhile, Chicago made another a new CONTRACT LOW but settled higher this time in reversal type action.  KC has resistance above 680 and its last major support undereath 600.  It’s been trending down since February 2011.  Chicago has been making lower highs since early this year continuing to be range-bound roughly between 600 and 700 but with definite lower tendencies since its been trending lower starting in May 2011 and did trade below 600 before settling just over it.  There is also strong resistance above 650.  The enitre wheat complex can be sold on rallies until further notice.  CALL FOR DETAILS!  Don’t forget the possiblility that the world wheat crop could be a record.  The funds may also still be holding a record number of short positions.  Oats had the same high, low and close, obviously, ending up unchanged and holding upwell so far.  There’s good support from 330 to 340 and below 320 which is the critical area to hold in my opinion.  Rice settled higher for its fourth session in a row continuing to hold its support but looking toppy at this time.  CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS, THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER no matter what the fundamental news was until today after the increase in stocks took the market by surprise.  I should have mentioned before that the new (Dec.) crop corn has been in a downtrend since last September.  There’s very good resistance overhead as seen below which is where the July contract stalled recently.  Today, July corn settled sharply lower again making its lowest low and close since the middle of March.  The bean complex closed higher off the report with the beans July bean contract holding in a support area.  Meal also continues to look higher overall but the oil is another matter but at the upper end of a support area.  I’m still recommending to stay on the sideline for oil.  For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.  BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL FUTURES.  SELL SIGNAL FOR MINNEAPOLIS KANSAS CITY WHEAT.  CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@zaner.com! 

 

Rick Alexander

(312) 277-0107

ralexander@zaner.com

Zaner Group

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Judy Crawford’s Grain futures Market Update (5/11)

Posted on May 11, 2012 by admin

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Judy Crawford, senior broker at Zaner Group.

GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

JULY CORN:  Corn pretty much had a double bottom – until today.  The first part was formed with the low on Dec. 15.  The second part was formed on April 18.  That double bottom was taken out today when corn sold off to 585 1/2.  That double bottom was a crucial price level and could signal much lower prices.  Technically its last chance to stabilize will be around 570.  That is last year’s low.  If it cannot hold there, expect 500 corn.  On the weekly chart, corn failed the 100 day ma this week.  That is a first since it rallied over it in July 2010.  Needless to say, technically that is very damaging.  Bottom line, if corn can muster up a rally at all, it is a short.  Closed 587 1/2, down 19 3/4.

JULY MINI WHEAT:  It is struggling to hold 600.  According to the 40-year seasonal pattern, wheat often peaks in the first week of May and declines from there into the end of June.  If it takes out the 2011 low of 572, its next target is probably 545.  Today it made a new low at 595 but managed to close higher by 1 1/4 cent.  Watching closely to short.  Closed 601 1/4, up 1 1/4.

JULY MINI SOYBEANS:  The grain report today was constructive for beans.  Technically, before the report, they did damage when they violated the 20 day ma on the daily chart on Tuesday.  This current rally will be key to the beans.  If this rally fails to take out the current high, that will be signaling a top in the bean market.  Move stops from 1471 3/4 down to 1460 1/2.  Closed 1455 1/4, up 25.  Position:  Short 1478 (5.3).  Projection:  1400.

JULY SOYBEAN MEAL:  I lowered the stop last night and it was reached with a profit.  Today’s high 425.50.  Meal violated the 20 day ma on the daily chart yesterday but did manage to close over it.  Watching closely to short.  Closed 424.60, up 8.60.
Position:  Short 427.90 (5.3).  Exit 420.90 (5.10).  Profit $645 (-comm/fees).

JULY SOYBEAN OIL:  It triggered a sell yesterday and closed on a new low.  Obviously today’s rally is a response to the rally in the beans.  Currently the 200, 100 and the 10 day ma intersect between 54.00 and 54.13.  Plus 54.00 is price resistance.  I will move my stop from 53.98 up to 54.15 in response to that.   The 35-year seasonal pattern indicates that bean oil normally sets a peak in early May that caps the upside for the next couple of months. Closed 53.50, up .68.  Position:  Short 52.97 (5.9).  Projection:  50.00.

For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription.

 

Judy Crawford

Call Judy Crawford toll-free at (888) 301-8120 or directly at (312) 277-0133

E-mail: jcrawford@zaner.com.

http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.

All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off